Osun Election: Amnesty International Predicts Low Turnout, Reveals Why

Amnesty International Nigeria has warned that the August 15, 2026, Osun State governorship election could record low voter turnout, citing growing fear among residents following a series of violent incidents and reports of intimidation ahead of the poll. The organisation said the security situation could discourage many eligible voters from going to the polling units.

The warning was issued by the Country Director of Amnesty International Nigeria, Isa Sanusi, who expressed concern over what he described as disturbing developments in the build-up to the election. According to him, the prevailing atmosphere of violence and insecurity could undermine citizens’ willingness to exercise their constitutional right to vote.

Sanusi’s position comes against the backdrop of reports documenting numerous incidents of election-related violence across Osun State. A report by the Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) said 73 election-related violent incidents resulting in 29 deaths had been recorded ahead of the August 15 election. The organisation identified 12 local government areas as high-risk locations.

Amnesty International said its own observations indicated that tensions were escalating in several parts of the state, including Osogbo, Ede, Ile-Ife, Oriade, Ijebu-Ijesha, Ilobu and Ikire. The rights organisation alleged that supporters of some political actors had been involved in attacks targeting political opponents or perceived opponents.

The organisation warned that such an environment could have a direct effect on voter participation. Where citizens fear attacks or intimidation at campaign venues, on the streets or around polling locations, many may choose to remain at home rather than risk their safety, potentially reducing the number of people who participate in the election.

Amnesty International has therefore called on the Nigerian authorities and security agencies to protect voters and ensure that citizens can freely participate in the electoral process. It also urged security agencies to remain neutral and avoid actions that could create the perception that they are supporting any political party or candidate.

The rights organisation further called for investigations into reported incidents of violence and deaths, insisting that those responsible should be held accountable. It also urged political parties and their supporters to reject violence and work towards ensuring that the election is conducted peacefully and fairly.

Concerns about the security environment have also been accompanied by allegations of political interference and controversy involving government officials and federal institutions. Amnesty International said it had received reports concerning arrests of Osun government officials and alleged attempts to influence the electoral process.

The security concerns have heightened the stakes for the major contenders in Saturday’s election. Governor Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking a second term, faces a strong challenge from Bola Oyebamiji, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress. Allegations concerning the neutrality of federal institutions have become part of the political debate surrounding the election.

With voters set to decide the next governor on August 15, Amnesty International’s warning places renewed attention on the responsibility of the government, security agencies, political parties and candidates to create an atmosphere in which citizens can vote without fear. The organisation’s central concern is that unless confidence in election-day security is restored, violence and intimidation could keep voters away from the ballot box and weaken participation in the democratic process.