Kwara 2027: Can APC Heal Enough For National Assembly Elections as Resurgent Opposition put Candidates Under Fresh Political Pressure?

By Oyez Olatunde Rex

The political calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections in Kwara State are becoming increasingly complicated. The first part of this analysis examined APC’s position in the governorship contest and Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq’s senatorial ambition, afterwards, events and political activities have taken place, and except there is the occurrence of a very strong political wind, APC remains the favourite for Ahmadu Bello House, the seat of government in Ilorin.

Now, attention is shifting to the National Assembly elections, where the political fortunes of individual candidates may be influenced by local grievances, party divisions and the alliances taking shape across the state.

One development that has added a new dimension to these calculations is the growing political relationship between influential APC stakeholders and opposition figures. The October 31 empowerment and enterprise colloquium organised by Ambassador Abdulfatai Yahaya Seriki-Gambari in Ilorin brought this development into public view.

The programme, reported to involve an empowerment package valued at approximately ₦4 billion, attracted prominent political figures, including Senator Saliu Mustapha and PDP governorship candidate Engr. Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu. Its significance for this analysis, however, goes beyond the scale of the programme. The presence of prominent PDP figures, Seriki’s public acknowledgement of former Senate President Bukola Saraki as his leader and the absence of some leading APC figures have drawn attention to the changing relationships within Kwara politics.

The development is relevant because the National Assembly contests will not necessarily follow the same political pattern as the governorship election. One major distinction between the governorship and the national Assembly elections is that one is statewide and the other is localized in districts. The Kwara Central Senatorial district is a battle ground for Kwara political titans and as such will be determined by dynamics that are wholely localized to the Senatorial district.

It is for this reason, that Candidates will have to contend with their individual records, local acceptance, party structures and the influence of political leaders operating within their constituencies in the national Assembly elections.

For APC candidates in Kwara Central, the question is whether the party’s political machinery can overcome the effects of internal disagreements and dissatisfaction with the governor who is the party leader. The contests in Ilorin East/Ilorin South and Ilorin West/Asa offer two different examples of how these issues may play out.

Ilorin East/Ilorin South: Olododo’s Political Advantages and Growing Questions About His Acceptability

The Ilorin East/Ilorin South Federal Constituency contest presents a significant test for the APC candidate, Engr. Abdulquawiy Olododo, and his PDP counterpart, Hon. Yusuf Saka Eletu.

Olododo is relatively new to elective politics, although he has held important positions within the AbdulRazaq administration. His political profile rests largely on three foundations: his family’s previous representation of the constituency, his relationship with Governor AbdulRazaq and his experience in public administration.

His father previously represented the federal constituency, giving the family an established political connection in the area. Olododo also served as Commissioner for Works before resigning to pursue the House of Representatives seat. Earlier, he headed the Kwara State Social Investment Programme (KWASSIP), giving him experience in the administration of government interventions and social welfare programmes.

These connections provide him with access to an established political network. His supporters have also pointed to his previous empowerment activities, youth engagement and public-service experience as reasons for supporting his candidacy.

However, political connections and family name recognition are not substitutes for personal acceptability. Olododo must establish that his candidacy commands support beyond the political influence of his father and his relationship with the governor. He must also convince voters that his record in public office gives them sufficient reason to entrust him with the responsibility of representing the constituency.

This is where his previous position as Commissioner for Works becomes particularly important.

The condition of roads in several communities, especially in parts of Ilorin South, remains a source of public concern. Roads such as the Gaa-Akanbi-Agbabiaka-Ago Aiyekale corridor, the Biada-Kilanko road and the Ita-Elepa-Osin routes have featured in complaints about deteriorating infrastructure and the difficulties residents encounter in accessing their communities. Yet, the affected communities are critical voting mass in the constituency he sought to represent.

The recent appeal by residents of Ero Omo-Kilanko-Biada for urgent road rehabilitation brought these concerns into sharper focus. Residents reportedly complained that erosion and deep gullies had threatened their buildings, disrupting businesses and making movement increasingly difficult.

For a former Works Commissioner seeking election to the House of Representatives, such complaints create an unavoidable accountability question. Voters may ask what progress was made on road maintenance and construction during his time in office, which projects were completed, which remained outstanding and what efforts were made to address the concerns of communities that needed government intervention.

It would be unfair to hold Olododo completely personally responsible for every infrastructure problem in the constituency. Road projects involve budgetary provisions, approvals, contractors and implementation timelines that must be considered. Nevertheless, his former position gives voters a legitimate basis for examining the administration’s performance in this area and asking him to account for the results achieved under his watch.

Another seeming political difficulty for Olododo is that he is not entering the contest as an entirely independent candidate. His close association with AbdulRazaq ought to be an advantage factor.
But in politics, adversaries are acquired from associations. What this means for Olododo, is that the dissatisfaction with the governor’s leadership of the party, by a powerful bloc could be inherited along the governor’s goodwill by his candidacy. If the growing alliance against the governor as analyzed in the first part is anything to go by, Olododo has a major obstacle before his election as a federal representative.

His challenge, therefore, is twofold: he must sell his personal credentials while also managing the political consequences of being identified closely with the party leader and his criticisms over internal party disagreements and infrastructure concerns.

There are indications that the political environment is becoming less straightforward for him. The activities of aggrieved APC stakeholders, particularly the G15, now operating under The Otoge Progressives (TOP), have introduced another variable into the constituency contest.

Their engagement with opposition figures has created the possibility that some APC supporters and influential local political networks may work against the party’s candidates in the National Assembly elections.

The extent of that opposition remains to be established. Not every member of TOP necessarily supports every PDP candidate, and political alliances do not automatically translate into votes. But the emergence of this bloc means Olododo cannot take the support of the wider APC political family for granted.

The AbdulRazaq Factor: Could the Senate Contest Affect Olododo?

One of the most important questions surrounding the Ilorin East/Ilorin South contest is the possible relationship between AbdulRazaq’s senatorial ambition and Olododo’s campaign.

The governor’s contest against Senator Saliu Mustapha in Kwara Central is attracting considerable attention because of the political realignments involving Mustapha, Saraki and aggrieved APC stakeholders.

The PDP’s emerging coalition has brought together politicians with established networks and varying degrees of influence across the Ilorin political environment.

The alignment, without equivocation, is very formidable and raises questions about whether opposition to AbdulRazaq will remain limited to him in the Kwara Central senatorial contest or extend to other candidates who are closely associated with him.
His Excellency, given the clout of his office in the face of the high odds, may narrowly have his way, but rookie candidates in his team may be swept off in the fierce wind of political rivalry expected to play out.

For Olododo, this possibility is particularly relevant because his candidacy is closely connected to the governor’s political project. If the growing alliance succeeds in mobilizing enough of their grassroots supporters against Gov. AbdulRazaq’s Senate ambition, Olododo may find it difficult to insulate his campaign from that dissaffection.

The PDP candidate, Eletu, could benefit from such a development, especially if he succeeds in presenting himself as a credible alternative with strong local connections. But the existence of an opportunity does not guarantee that PDP will convert it into electoral support. Eletu must demonstrate his own political capacity and convince voters that he can provide effective representation.

The central issue is whether Olododo can establish an independent political identity strong enough to withstand the consequences of any wider backlash against the governor. His performance in public office, his engagement with communities and his ability to address concerns about infrastructure will be important parts of that assessment.

Eletu’s Grassroots Campaign and the Emerging PDP Network

For the PDP, Yusuf Saka Eletu’s candidacy provides an opportunity to build on the party’s emerging political relationships in the constituency.

Eletu emerged as the PDP consensus candidate in May 2026. His campaign is operating within a political environment in which Senator Saliu Mustapha and Ambassador Yahaya Seriki have become prominent figures in the wider mobilisation of support for the party’s political project.

Mustapha’s position as the PDP senatorial candidate for Kwara Central and Seriki’s extensive political and philanthropic networks could provide Eletu with opportunities to connect with a wider support base.

However, Eletu must still establish his own relationships with voters, demonstrate an understanding of constituency needs and convince residents that he can provide effective representation.

His campaign also has an opportunity to make local infrastructure and community development central issues. Rather than relying entirely on the political influence of prominent figures, he will need to explain how his proposed representation would address the concerns of communities in Ilorin East and Ilorin South.

The emerging PDP alignment could provide visibility and organisational support. Its actual impact will depend on whether the various political interests involved can maintain a common position and coordinate their activities at ward and polling-unit levels.

For the two candidates, the contest will therefore involve more than party loyalty. Voters will have to consider their personal records, their relationship with the communities they seek to represent and the political implications of the wider realignment taking place in Kwara.

Ilorin West/Asa: Shagaya’s Incumbency and Constituency Network

The situation in Ilorin West/Asa Federal Constituency is different. The APC candidate, incumbent lawmaker Hon. Muktar Tolani Shagaya, is seeking another term after serving in the 10th House of Representatives.

Unlike Olododo, who is seeking his first elective mandate, Shagaya has an existing legislative record and constituency experience against which voters can assess his performance.

He represents Ilorin West/Asa in the House of Representatives and serves as Deputy Chairman of the House Committee on Basic Education and Services. His legislative and constituency activities have included interventions in education, infrastructure and community development.

His constituency engagement is also reflected in projects undertaken across the federal constituency. In October 2024, reports documented the commissioning of school renovations, new classrooms, solar-powered boreholes and toilet facilities in several communities.

These interventions form part of the record that will feature in discussions about his representation. His constituency office and grassroots mobilisation activities also provide an established channel for maintaining contact with constituents.

Another factor in Shagaya’s political profile is his family background. His parents have longstanding philanthropic connections in the area, and those relationships may continue to feature in the political environment surrounding his re-election campaign.

However, an incumbent’s established network is only one part of the assessment. Voters may also consider the quality of his legislative contributions, the accessibility of his constituency office, the distribution of constituency projects and whether the needs of different communities have received adequate attention.

There may be dissenting opinions about the style and reach of his political engagement, but the more useful measure is the extent to which constituents believe his first term has addressed their expectations. His record offers voters concrete issues to examine rather than requiring them to assess him solely on campaign promises.

In Ilorin West/Asa, Shagaya appears to enter the race from a more established position, having built a record of constituency engagement and legislative representation, but the coming election will provide an opportunity to assess how Shagaya’s legislative experience, constituency interventions and political relationships compare with the expectations of voters in Ilorin West and Asa.

The Wider Political Implications

Taken together, the two constituencies present different electoral calculations for the major parties. While APC retains the advantage of incumbency and its governing structure, PDP has an opportunity to exploit internal disagreements, local grievances and the personal political vulnerabilities of some APC candidates. The extent to which it can convert these openings into electoral gains will become clearer as campaigns gather momentum.

Part Three will examine the political landscape in Kwara North and Kwara South, where the senatorial and federal constituency contests will present their own alliances, rivalries and electoral calculations.