Kwara 2027: APC May Keep the Government, but AbdulRazaq Could Lose His Own Political Gamble

By Oyez Olatunde Rex

As the race towards the 2027 general election gathers momentum in Kwara State, two political calculations are beginning to stand out. The All Progressives Congress (APC) appears better positioned to retain the governorship, while Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq could face a serious challenge in his anticipated bid for the Kwara Central Senate seat. The irony is that the political influence he is deploying to shape his succession could prove less effective when he seeks votes for himself.

The difference lies partly in the nature of the opposition confronting him. In the governorship race, APC can draw on a statewide political organisation, its control of the state government and its alignment with the federal government. In Kwara Central, however, AbdulRazaq faces a more personal and locally concentrated challenge, with much of the political resistance to his Senate ambition reportedly coming from within his own kinship and community networks.

This distinction matters because the factors that influence a statewide election are not always the same as those that determine a senatorial contest. APC’s organisational strength could help its governorship candidate across Kwara’s 16 local government areas, but it may not be enough to neutralise opposition rooted in the governor’s own political and community environment. That creates the possibility of APC retaining Government House while AbdulRazaq struggles to secure his own mandate.

Why APC Remains the Favourite for the Governorship

APC enters the governorship contest with significant structural advantages. It controls the Kwara State Government, belongs to the party in power at the federal level and has an established network of elected officials, political appointees, party organisers and supporters across the state.

These advantages matter because a statewide election is not won by public declarations alone. It requires sustained mobilisation, effective coordination and the ability to maintain a political presence in communities across the state. APC already has a governing structure through which much of this work can be organised.

The party’s governorship candidate, Hon. Salihu Yakubu Danladi, also has the backing of Governor AbdulRazaq, whose influence within the APC makes him a central figure in the succession contest. If the governor maintains his commitment to Danladi and keeps the party’s machinery working towards a common objective, the candidate will benefit from this all important advantage over his rivals.

As things stands today, APC’s support groups add to this position. Their expanding activities and growing visibility suggest that the party is working to strengthen its reach beyond the formal party hierarchy. The decisive factor is their increasing success at turning these activities into willing voters as resources and influences are being deployed. Their presence gives Danladi an additional platform for reaching and convincing the neutral electorate.

The APC’s advantage is therefore not based on one politician or one campaign promise. It rests on the combined weight of incumbency, federal alignment, an established political organisation and the governor’s backing of his preferred successor.

The Saraki Structure Is Still Relevant, but Its Political Environment Has Changed

The political structure associated with former Senate President Bukola Saraki remains the mainstay of opposition politics in Kwara. Its grassroots relationships, experience in electoral mobilisation and long history in the state make it a force that cannot be dismissed.

However, the structure no longer operates from the position of power it enjoyed when its political camp controlled the state government. Several years outside the government have degraded the camp cohesion, changed the calculations for its leaders, supporters and prospective allies.

Political structures depend on more than loyalty. They must maintain networks, sustain the interest of supporters and remain attractive to politicians seeking opportunities to advance their careers. Prolonged exclusion from the government can make these tasks more difficult, particularly when the opposing camp controls both the state administration and the party in power federally.

Saraki’s political network still offers the opposition a valuable foundation, but it must now compete against an APC with the institutional advantages of incumbency. Its former dominance cannot simply be assumed to return because its leaders have retained their political names and relationships.

This is one of the reasons the governorship contest currently favours APC. The opposition has a recognised political structure, but the ruling party has the stronger institutional position from which to organise a statewide campaign and mobilizations, the kind opposition may not be able to muster before the elections.

The Resource Gap Could Widen the Difference

A governorship election requires substantial resources to maintain campaign activities across the state. Political parties must coordinate and fund their local structures, engage supporters, communicate their messages and sustain mobilisation until election day.

APC has the advantage of an established governing-party network, while PDP must rely on its own resources, the contributions of its political leaders and the effectiveness of its alliances.

The difference is significant. A party that can maintain a stronger presence across local governments and wards has a practical advantage over a rival struggling to sustain the same level of activity.

PDP’s challenge is therefore not merely to attract prominent political figures. It must ensure that those figures can deliver organised support and that its campaign machinery remains effective across the state.

APC, meanwhile, must convert its institutional advantage into electoral support. Resources and political appointments do not automatically guarantee votes, but they can make a campaign more effective when properly coordinated.

On the balance of these factors, APC has the stronger hand. The opposition may make the election competitive, but it faces the more difficult task of overcoming a party that already possesses the machinery of government.

AbdulRazaq’s Influence Could Secure Danladi’s Succession

The governorship contest is also a test of AbdulRazaq’s ability to shape the political future of his party. His backing of Danladi gives the candidate an important advantage in the effort to consolidate APC support.

Already, governor AbdulRazaq is influencing political coordination by bringing elected officials, party leaders and grassroots organisers together behind Rt Hon Salihu Danladi Yakubu. The extent to which that influence is producing results shows in the shifting inertia in the Kwara North Senatorial district. The once divided zone is beginning to yield to the governor’s influence, there by steadily closing ranks.

AbdulRazaq’s political interest in Danladi’s success is clear within the succession calculation: a victory for the APC candidate would preserve the party’s control of the state after the governor leaves office.

The governor therefore has a strong reason to commit his political influence to the campaign. If he succeeds in keeping the party’s core structure united and mobilising its support groups effectively, Danladi will be difficult to dislodge.

The opposition’s best opportunity lies in turning APC’s internal disagreements into a broader electoral challenge. Yet that opportunity is not the same as having the stronger campaign structure.

For now, the more persuasive calculation is that APC remains the clear favourite to win the governorship, with AbdulRazaq well placed to help his preferred successor emerge victorious.

Kwara Central: The Contest That Could Rewrite AbdulRazaq’s Political Story

The picture changes when attention turns to Kwara Central, where AbdulRazaq is expected to contest for the Senate seat. Here, the governor faces a possible alignment of political forces whose combined influence could outweigh the advantages he enjoys as the incumbent governor.

Senator Saliu Mustapha, who represents Kwara Central, has emerged as a central figure in this contest after leaving APC and securing the PDP senatorial ticket.

His defection has brought the internal divisions within the ruling party into direct competition with the governor’s own senatorial ambition.

The alignment involving Bukola Saraki, Yahaya Seriki, Ibrahim Oloriegbe, Dele Belgore and Mustapha gives the opposition a substantial political base to work with. These figures have their own networks, relationships and grassroots following. If they coordinate their efforts behind Mustapha as they appear to be, they could mount a challenge far more formidable than a conventional opposition campaign.

Their advantage lies in the possibility of combining political influence that would otherwise remain divided among separate camps. Saraki brings the legacy and networks of a long-established political structure; the other figures bring their own relationships and influence within the district and the wider state.

The critical issue is whether these relationships will translate into a coordinated campaign. Shared dissatisfaction with the governor may bring political actors together, but sustaining an alliance requires agreement on strategy and a willingness to work towards the same electoral objective.

If the emerging alignment holds, AbdulRazaq will be confronting more than Mustapha’s individual campaign. He will be facing a collective political effort with the potential to challenge his support base across Kwara Central.

What Senator Saliu Mustapha Really Meant by “Before 1pm”

On August 21, 2026, Mustapha made the declaration that has since become a major talking point in Kwara’s political conversation.

His declaration was more than a routine expression of confidence. By attaching a specific time to his prediction, Mustapha challenged the governor’s political standing and presented himself as a candidate who believed the balance of support in Kwara Central was already moving decisively in his favour.

The political importance of the statement becomes clearer when considered alongside his explanation of the coalition taking shape around the election. Mustapha spoke of the G15, The Otoge Progressives and other aggrieved stakeholders, and identified the broader political arrangement as part of the reason for his decision to leave APC. He also said that Saraki supported the emerging coalition.

The slogan has put a sharp question before Kwara Central: can a coalition of influential political actors overcome the advantages of a sitting governor? On the current political alignment, that possibility deserves serious attention.

The G15: AbdulRazaq’s Most Important Political Vulnerability

The G15 issue may prove central to the Senate contest because it concerns the relationship between AbdulRazaq and influential figures within his own broader political camp.

Existing counterarguments are important, but does not remove the political risk for AbdulRazaq. Even if some members remain within APC or continue to support its candidates elsewhere, the governor’s problem in Kwara Central is whether he can retain the backing of the particular figures whose networks matter to his own senatorial contest.

A complete, united G15 defection is not necessary for the governor to face a difficult election. A smaller number of influential figures working with Mustapha and Saraki could still weaken the governor’s local support base.

The governor’s most promising route to reducing this risk would be to reconcile with pivotal members of the group and restore enough trust to prevent their political networks from being deployed against him. Yet the longer the disagreements persist, the more firmly the opposing alliance takes shape, and the harder such a reconciliation has become.

At this stage, a meaningful return of the pivotal G15 figures to AbdulRazaq’s camp appears increasingly difficult. Unless he can reverse that trend, he will have to contest the Senate seat without the full benefit of the political unity that an incumbent would normally want.

The Final Political Calculation

The governorship and senatorial contests are producing different political equations.

For the governorship, APC has the advantage of incumbency, federal alignment, an established statewide structure and AbdulRazaq’s support for Danladi.

These factors put APC in the stronger position to retain the governorship. Danladi is the candidate best placed to benefit from the existing balance of power, provided the party can turn its structural advantages into votes.

Kwara Central is a different matter. Senator Mustapha’s move to PDP, the grievances surrounding the APC primaries and the potential alignment involving Saraki, Seriki, Oloriegbe, Belgore and other political stakeholders have created a serious challenge for AbdulRazaq.

On the present trajectory, the Senator Saliu Mustapha has a credible route to victory, while the governor’s ability to rely on incumbency alone looks increasingly questionable.

The political irony is hard to miss: AbdulRazaq may have enough influence to help determine who succeeds him at Government House, yet face a much tougher task when he seeks his own mandate from Kwara Central voters.

The emerging verdict is that APC holds the stronger hand in the governorship race, while AbdulRazaq’s Senate ambition carries a genuine risk of defeat.

The final outcome will depend on the alliances that hold, the political relationships that are repaired and the ability of each camp to turn its influence into votes.

Part Two of this analytical series will examine the political trends affecting APC candidates in the other senatorial districts and federal constituencies across Kwara State.