President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has approved the imposition of a 15 percent import duty on diesel and petrol, marking a major shift in Nigeria’s energy and fiscal policy. The new duty applies to all imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), commonly known as petrol and diesel, and is calculated based on the Cost, Insurance, and Freight (CIF) value of the products. The approval was contained in a letter dated October 21, 2025, issued by the President’s Private Secretary, Damilotun Aderemi, and addressed to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
According to the directive, the new policy is aimed at aligning Nigeria’s import tariff system with current economic realities and promoting the growth of local refining. The Tinubu administration believes that by introducing the 15 percent import duty, the country can gradually reduce dependence on imported petroleum products while encouraging domestic production. This policy also fits into the government’s broader fiscal reform agenda to boost non-oil revenue and curb the over-reliance on crude exports and imports that have weakened the naira in recent years.
However, industry experts warn that the new import duty could lead to a significant increase in the pump price of petrol and diesel nationwide. Early estimates suggest that the additional 15 percent levy may add as much as ₦99.72 to the cost of a litre of petrol, depending on the import price and exchange rate. This development is expected to have a ripple effect on transportation, logistics, and commodity prices, raising concerns about potential inflationary pressure across key sectors of the economy.
Government sources maintain that the decision was not taken lightly, noting that the administration weighed the short-term economic discomfort against the long-term benefits of protecting local refineries and stabilizing the downstream sector. Officials explained that the import duty would create a level playing field for refineries within the country, including the Dangote Refinery and other modular plants, which have been under pressure from cheaper imported fuels that undermine local competitiveness.
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The Tinubu administration has made clear its intention to shift Nigeria away from the era of heavy fuel importation and subsidy dependence. Since taking office in May 2023, the President has implemented a series of reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, unification of exchange rates, and deregulation of the petroleum downstream sector. These moves, while controversial, have been described as necessary steps toward fiscal sustainability and long-term economic independence.
Reactions to the import duty announcement have been mixed. While some stakeholders in the oil and gas industry applaud the move as a step toward self-sufficiency, others warn that ordinary Nigerians will bear the brunt of the policy. Labour unions and transport associations have expressed concerns that rising fuel prices could worsen the cost-of-living crisis already facing millions of households. Consumer rights groups are also calling on the government to implement measures that cushion the impact of higher prices, particularly in transportation and food supply chains.
Economists argue that although the 15 percent import duty could boost government revenue, its success will depend largely on how efficiently it is implemented and how quickly domestic refining capacity can meet national demand. If local refineries are unable to ramp up production in time, Nigeria could face temporary shortages and further price instability. Conversely, if the Dangote Refinery and other facilities operate optimally, the country could significantly reduce its fuel import bill and strengthen its foreign exchange reserves.
This policy shift also aligns with the government’s efforts to diversify the economy and reduce capital flight associated with petroleum imports. By retaining more of the refining and distribution processes within the country, Nigeria could save billions in foreign exchange annually and create new jobs in the energy and logistics sectors. The administration has emphasized that the 15 percent duty is part of a larger strategy to achieve energy independence and fiscal resilience.
Despite the government’s assurances, analysts caution that the short-term social implications of the policy could be severe unless effective mitigation plans are introduced. They urge the government to expand social welfare programs and explore targeted subsidies for critical sectors such as agriculture and public transportation. Without these measures, the rising fuel costs could erode household purchasing power and trigger public discontent.
In summary, President Bola Tinubu’s approval of a 15 percent import duty on petrol and diesel represents a bold economic reform designed to strengthen local refining, boost revenue, and stabilize the downstream oil sector. While the policy promises long-term benefits for Nigeria’s economy, it also poses immediate challenges for consumers and businesses grappling with already high inflation. The coming months will determine whether the administration’s strategy delivers sustainable results or deepens the economic strain on ordinary Nigerians.
